Tag Archives: Ukraine

Formula for Disaster

Since my Youtube channel is currently dedicated to more entertainment-related topics, I figured I might as well do a little serious writing here for the time being (typically I publish that sort of material at Nihilist.li these days). It just occurred to me that apart from scattered tweets, I never really gave a comprehensive opinion on the so-called “Steinmeier formula” that’s been dominating news in Ukraine lately, which is of course another argument against using Twitter. So in case you were wondering, here is my position on Steinmeier, which is inevitably going to piss off a lot of people because Ukraine. 

 

My opinion is as follows: Steinmeier, both the man Frank-Walter Steinmeier (seriously who hyphenates their first name?!), and his “formula,” suck. Powerfully. That being said, Zelenskyy’s position on the matter isn’t necessarily the cause for panic that some see it as. The question is whether Zelenskyy sticks to his guns about the manner in which it is to be implemented. Zelenskyy says he insists on control over the border and foreign troops out of Ukraine before holding elections, which must be held according to Ukrainian law. This is different from what the “formula” originally states.

 

As presented in 2016, the plan could be extremely problematic because it calls for elections to be held before restoring control of the border to Ukraine. While they must be certified as free and fair by the OSCE, there’s nothing specifying exactly what degree of “free and fair” they must achieve to be considered valid under the formula. The OSCE’s ODIHR (Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights) does not simply rate elections in a black and white, pass/fail style basis. This means that Russia’s proxies could potentially rig the elections in such a way that they get their people in key positions in the region but not so much that the OSCE declares them invalid (Russia would also no-doubt send their typical delegation of neo-Nazi and backward Communist “election monitors” who would declare the whole process free and fair). 

 

On the other hand, if Zelenskyy insists on return of the border and removal of troops first, then it is possible that actual free and fair elections could be held on those territories. The catch in this case is that Russia would most likely refuse to abide by the plan because they aren’t going to risk losing their foothold in Ukraine without some kind of guarantee that they’ll have their agents well-entrenched in the political system. So if Zelenskyy doesn’t go back on his promises, Russia is likely to refuse to cooperate and we stay at the long bloody status quo. 

 

Personally speaking, as bad as the status quo is, it is preferable to any scenario which could be presented as capitulation by the Kremlin and its propaganda organs. Apart from the demoralization in Ukraine, Russia would inevitably use such a “victory” to lobby for the removal of all sanctions related to their involvement in eastern Ukraine by severing them from those covering Crimea. This is why I think it’s good that people came out and protested the matter, if only to remind Zelenskyy not to cave to Russian or European demands. It is of course unfortunate that right wing fifth columnist organizations like the National Corps are trying to capitalize on and monopolize this protest movement, but grifters gonna grift, after all. 

 

On the other hand I can’t help but see a lot of the anger being misdirected at Zelenskyy when there are others far worthier of ire. The Poroshenko dead-enders, for example, seem to forget that St. Petro himself had endorsed and tried to push through similar “special status” laws back in 2015. Those moves also provoked major protests and a bomb attack that killed four people. Earlier he’d even voiced willingness for a referendum on federalization, one of Russia’s main demands, back in 2014. Sure, he said he personally was against the idea, and he had to have known the majority of Ukrainians would vote it down, but Ukrainian politics are a minefield where saying the wrong thing or even saying something innocuous with the wrong wording gets called out as ZRADA! (treason), and some of his fans seem to be forgetting these actions, quite conveniently. Furthermore, Poroshenko and his fans seem to forget that they have been pushing the “no alternative to Minsk” line this whole time. This crowd never ceases talking tough about the war and labeling any opponent as being in favor of “capitulations,” but I know from personal experience that when you press them on what their great military solution is they retreat to mumbling about Minsk, “isolating Russia,” and poorly understood military history about Croatia’s Flash and Storm offensives of 1995. It’s all just empty posturing, and Ukrainians see through it. The majority, in fact. 

 

It seems to me that the most anger should be directed at, after the Kremlin of course, Europeans like Frank-Walter Steinmeier. One of the most infuriating things about the behavior of Ukraine’s so-called “friends,” the OSCE, etc. is the constant both-sides tone you hear in their statements and recommendations. Obviously being the victim of military aggression isn’t a license to wantonly engage in any kind of morally reprehensible behavior, but in the case of this war Ukraine has demonstrated great patience and restraint given the circumstances. If there were a will, Ukraine could be fighting this war far more dirtier than it currently is (Yo, Ze, hit me up!). Yet despite this, European states and their leaders, and at times even the US government, still often act as though peace in Ukraine is equally on the shoulders of Kyiv as much as it is on Moscow. Even Emmanuel Macron, who won an election in which he was the only major candidate without an obvious soft-spot for Putin, was recently demonstrating his desire to reintegrate Russia in the West.

 

Zelenskyy himself is something of a mixed bag, but given everything I’ve covered above, it’s hard to imagine him seeing any alternatives. Since 2015 the world as well as Ukraine’s own president had been saying the only way out is Minsk, and Steinmeier is basically a simplified version of key points of that agreement. And bear in mind they were singing this refrain of “no solution but Minsk” even as the very first point on that agreement was flagrantly violated on a daily basis for years, even up to the present. Ukraine’s establishment and its supposed allies all demanded that the corpse called Minsk II be worshipped, insisted there was no substitute, and now people are supposed to get angry that a former comedian is basically acquiescing to that very notion? 

 

If one wants to rage against Zelenskyy over this, by all means do so, but don’t exclude those that came before him and set the rules of the game. Better yet, don’t engage in chest-beating posturing only to seek refuge in “fulfill Minsk!” whenever someone asks about your supposedly non-capitulationist position. At the moment I hope Zelenskyy sticks to his guns, causing the Russians to refuse, and maintaining the status quo, as bad as it may be. However, because I have a bit more imagination than “Minsk II then Operation Storm somehow,” I can see plenty of opportunities for Ukraine to strike back even if they did accept the formula as is and gave Donetsk and Luhansk  “special status.” But whatever happens, perhaps instead of pointing the finger at this or that Ukrainian politician it would be better to attack the bigger problems such as Minsk II and the broken, capitalist international nation-state system that leads Ukraine’s so called “allies” to treat Ukraine equally to Russia when apportioning blame for the war while chomping at the bit to reconcile with Tsar Putin. Ukraine’s hope was never going to come from some president. 

 

Kremlin Admits Past Five Years Was Elaborate April Fools’ Day Joke

MOSCOW– In what may be called one of the most elaborate pranks in history, Russian Presidential Spokesman Dmitry Peskov revealed that the past five years of Russian foreign policy had been a “massive April Fools’ joke” at a briefing on Monday.

“Andy Kaufman has got nothing on us,” Peskov said, tears streaming down his face as he clearly struggled to contain his laugher.

“The look on your faces this whole time- priceless! Absolutely priceless!”

Over the next two hours, Peskov revealed how Putin and other members of his government and security apparatus plotted to play what they called “the greatest prank of all time” on the West. Summarizing the plan, Peskov explained that it would begin first with the annexation of the Crimea, then a war in Ukraine, and finally a host of various international scandals and incidents over the following five years. The events themselves, however, were not the most important part of the plan.

“Of course starting wars and poisoning people in other countries, in and of themselves, are really just acts of aggression and assassination,” Peskov explained.

“The real prank, the thing that made the whole five-year affair so hilarious, was that we planned to just stupidly deny everything despite overwhelming evidence that we were guilty. To that end, we harnessed the entire state media apparatus.”

Peskov then broke down laughing as he recounted the ways in which some independent media outlets and commentators in the West actually took Russia’s denials seriously, even as the Kremlin knew its deliberate lies were “totally idiotic.”

“Can you believe there were- there are people in the West who after all these years seriously believe we didn’t shoot down MH17?” Peskov asked reporters.

“There are. There really are. The Ukrainian military had zero reason to fire at a single plane flying at that altitude, from east to west, while they were fighting a war against an enemy with no air force whatsoever. And yet despite that, and despite the fact that we must have put out no fewer than two dozen different stories, many of which blatantly contradicted each other, some of your citizens still bought it! And they thought they were the clever skeptics who don’t fall for government lies!”

Peskov again broke down laughing after that point and needed to take a few minutes to regain his composure before moving onto the topic of Syria.

“Syria was another one where your gullible audiences totally fell for the flimsiest lies. Remember how many times in 2018 our Ministry of Defense said it knew that the White Helmets and possibly Western special forces were about to stage a fake chemical attack? Did you ever get suspicious when that never happened? What kind of idiot would you have to be to believe something that stupid?  Sure, the false flag to bring Western intervention could have made sense that one time in 2013, but after that, two, three times? Come on? You’d have to be the dumbest imbecile in the world to believe that!”

According to Peskov, “only a total, utter moron” could believe the claims and denials of the Russian government.

“Bellingcat had us dead to rights on the identity of the Salisbury poisoning culprits,” he said.

“If we had been telling the truth about these two men, we had the perfect opportunity to totally discredit those Bellingcat nerds forever. And yet despite the fact that we never even attempted this and instead kept spinning more and more unbelievable alternative theories about the poisoning, so many of your self-proclaimed media skeptics totally believed our side! Hilarious. Absolutely hilarious!”

Putin’s spokesman also told reporters that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, with the encouragement of Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, even treated the prank like a type of competition, whereby different Russian embassies around the world would compete for whose official Twitter account could “tweet the dumbest thing” and still have followers believing them.

“The competition was fierce, but our embassy in the U.K. won ever year, hands down,” Peskov said.

When asked if the revelation of this five-year prank meant that Russia would pull its forces out of Ukraine and apologize for incidents such as the downing of MH17 and the Salisbury poisonings, Peskov said it would not.

 

Guest Post: Ukraine Wonk Explains Elections, Neo-Nazis, and Russian Propaganda

By Joe Dandleton

With less than a week to go to Ukraine’s historic presidential election, it’s a good time to discuss what this means for Ukraine, the West, NATO, Russia, Putin, and the Baltic states. There are several dozen candidates but only three in the top three and only one can win after two rounds of democratic combat. Already things are looking difficult for incumbent Petro Poroshenko, known as the “Porky Chocolate Man” on the streets of Kyiv. He’s facing series challenges from TV comedian Volodymyr Zelensky and Gas Queen Yulia Tymoshenko, who comes in both her normal female form and a male form known as Yuriy Tymoshenko. In a way, you could almost say the top three is a top four, but that’s what you’d say because you’re not Ukraine-savvy and never worked for the State Department like I did. So take my word for it, Russian trolls, it’s a top three- both Tymoshenkos count as one person.

Back to Zelensky. Is he the Kremlin’s candidate? Or is the Kremlin’s candidate Zelensky? Does anyone truly know for sure in this era of hybrid warfare and dezinformatsiya? No, no one does. Except me. And I will tell you this about Zelensky. He’s a comedian, and comedians see their careers go down in flames all the time. Sure, he might be doing very well now (possibly with Kremlin support channeled through Belarus’ Last European Dictator Alexander Lukashenka), but who’s to say he doesn’t pull a Louis CK before election day? And if he does, do we know if it was genuine or could it have been a case of kompromat set up by the Russian intelligence services. Nobody knows. Nobody can know. That’s the point of clandestine hybrid warfare and dezinformatsiya, known as deza for short.

But there’s one factor everyone (except me) is forgetting during this critical time when Ukraine is standing at the crossroads at the intersection of N. Fulfill Minsk Street and Get Totally Fucked Road, and that is the neo-Nazi ultranationalists such as Andriy Biletsky’s National Azov C14 Corps. Recently they have been holding rallies all across Ukraine attacking Poroshenko. It is they who coined clever nicknames for him such as the aforementioned Porky Chocolate Man, Piggly-Wiggly, and President Fuckface. The question is, who does the Azov 14 Corps actually work for?

To my trained eye, this whole movement appears to be some kind of complex Russian hybrid propaganda campaign. Given the state of advanced animatronics these days, it’s entirely possible that Russia has created a small army of androids capable of marching in parades and mouthing simplistic slogans. Think this is too far-fetched? Just look at how many articles on RT and Sputnik are about sex robots. There are so many that I don’t even have to use Google to learn the latest developments in sex robots; Russia has become my number one source on that. And besides, you cannot say these National Corps thugs aren’t robots when you haven’t administered anything like a Voight-Kampff test or ripped one of them in half to see if they have milky blood a la Bishop from Aliens.

Of course maybe the neo-Nazis aren’t a Russian propaganda ploy to undermine Poroshenko. Maybe I’m just writing the above to make light of those who insist they are working directly or indirectly for Russia. Maybe I am in fact just amplifying the Kremlin’s narrative of a Ukraine overrun by Nazis. You don’t know. I don’t know. You definitely don’t know. Andriy Biletsky may know. Someone should probably ask him. If you do, ask him what he’d do if he were in the desert and saw a tortoise lying on its back. It’s like a turtle if that helps.

The fact is we’re down to the wire in Ukraine. There is corruption and not enough reforms. Or possibly too much reforms and not enough corruption. Will Poroshenko be the one to bring balance to the reforms and corruption so one does not displace the other and allow Putin to seize more of Ukraine? Or will Zelensky and the Tymoshenkos unleash the National Corps which could be as much under the control of Vladimir Putin as it is under the control of Interior Minister Avakov? Too early to call. Much too early. But I feel like we’ll have a lot of answers to a lot of questions we never knew we had until tomorrow, next week. Stay tuned.

 

Joe Dandleton is a DC based analyst who spent a year and a half working for the US State Department in Ukraine after 2014’s Euromaidan Revolution. He says he is lost and can’t find his metro card or keys and that it is ‘getting very cold and dark out now.’ 

A Very Special Message

So I was happy to see the blog is once again getting a lot of engagement, seemingly due mostly to one of my recent posts, The Foreigner’s Guide to Appropriate Protests. I was a bit less amused to find that some of this attention is due to it being shared on several conservative and liberal subreddits. So while I made a decision to make this a humorous/satirical site a while back, forgive me for getting a bit serious for a moment.

If you’re one of those centrist liberals or conservatives who enjoyed the piece, here’s a special message for you: Fuck you, you hypocrite.

Yes, Western, particularly American leftists are ignorant about the situation in the rest of the world and arrogantly lecture people on how to behave in their own countries, but people like you not only do the same thing with protest movements abroad, but you even do it to your own people. You ignore the cause of a mass protest to focus on a window getting smashed or an upended trashcan. You whine about the lack of “civility.” Conservatives in particular are extremely fond of deliberately misinterpreting the message of a protest movement so that they can knock down a strawman, e.g. “All lives matter.”

And for the leftists whose nerves were struck by that satirical work- tough shit. You make fun of conservatives for not knowing the difference between Shiites and Sunni (though you probably couldn’t say what that is if asked right now), or for not knowing that Iranians aren’t Arab, but the truth is that so many years after 9/11 and Iraq, you’re not really that much more informed. What you’ve got is a serious case of Dunning-Kruger syndrome about the outside world, which is what happens when your frame of reference for how informed you are is comparing yourself to the dumbest people in the country. Think I’m being unfair? I just spent about half of my Twitter day slowly explaining to a bunch of self-proclaimed leftists that no, the Taliban wasn’t created or set up by the CIA, that it in fact didn’t exist as a fighting force until 1994, well after the US had all but abandoned Afghanistan, and no, they didn’t fund Bin Laden and he and his Arab volunteers actually weren’t a significant force in the mujahideen. Yes, I’ve been reading a lot of books on Afghanistan in recent years, but a lot of this stuff isn’t too hard to find. For example, you can learn about the role of Afghan Maoists in the Afghan-Soviet War from Wikipedia, of all places.

These days much of my timeline is filled with Syrians, Venezuelans, and Afghans all making a futile effort to get Western, mostly American leftists to actually listen to them and acknowledge that they might actually know a little more about their own countries’ history than people who may not even have a passport. Indeed, they may even know more than Oliver Stone or…gasp! St. Chomsky! The really infuriating thing about this is how all that intersectionality and respecting “lived experience” flies right out the window when it comes to a foreigner voicing an “incorrect” opinion. Look, being from a country doesn’t automatically make someone right, but at the very least, it demands you act a little less arrogant, and maybe listen more than you talk. Ask some follow up questions for a change. Again, it’s amazing that people who will call out someone for “mansplaining” will happily lecture a Syrian or Afghan on the politics of their own country, to which they’ve never been, whose language they cannot speak, based on shit they heard on RT or Democracy Now! 

You want to know the secret as to why I’ve never been a Chavez/Maduro backer despite being a socialist and at one time a self-identified Marxist-Leninist? It’s not just because Chavista Venezuela was never even remotely socialist. Part of it has to do with Venezuelans I’ve met over the years (oh I’m sure they were secretly millionaires in disguise though, right?) of course. But one of the biggest reasons was simply living in another authoritarian state where the leadership blames all its failures on shadowy Western conspiracies. That, and I’ve had friends who either lived under similar regimes. What you learn from this experience is that virtually all these regimes operate the same way. They all have a ruling class that siphons off money, usually form the export of natural resources, into the offshore accounts of the leader and his cronies. When times are good and commodity prices are high, some of that does manage to trickle down in the form of social safety nets. But when times get rough and it comes down to social programs for the masses or more luxury villas for the ruling class, the latter wins every time. And if the US and its allies criticize this or better yet, levy targeted sanctions- so much the better.

All of these regimes use similar tactics. Harassment of dissidents with plausible deniability. Consolidation and control over the media. Pro-regime rallies consisting of paid pensioners, public school and university students, and state workers. Constant promotion of bullshit conspiracy theories. Most of all, there’s always some kind of narrative about how the regime is coming under pressure because it has some great worldview that is opposed to the greedy Yankee hegemony. In Venezuela it was “21st century socialism.” In Syria it’s Baathism. In Russia it was “sovereign democracy.” In virtually every case, we’re told that this is an expression of the country’s sovereignty and self-determination, and the only reason why the US or the West criticizes it is because this country is going its own way and now kowtowing to the imperialist hegemony. The problem is, that in most cases the vast majority of people in those nations were never asked if they wanted to live under a corrupt and authoritarian regime that steals their country’s national wealth in exchange for supposedly “standing up to the West.” Believe it or not, but most of these people want things like food, shelter, and the opportunity to better their lives without having to have personal connections to the right family, bureaucrat, military officer, etc.

Do these experiences of mine make me an expert on Venezuela? Hell no. But living so long under Putin, plus the experiences related to me by people who lived under other dictatorial regimes has given me an ability to understand and filter information a little bit better because I’ve personally witnessed things that are near-identical to what these people are describing. Could I be wrong? Perhaps. Maybe these near identical things are just a coincidence, i.e. Maduro’s a genuine leftist who really is under siege by the US and this is responsible for his situation as opposed to his own mismanagement, while Putin is totally lying when he says similar things. But you know what? Occam’s Razor says we live in a capitalist world where states are run by ruling classes, not their working people, and it also says that if some country has some great popular ideology, it would probably be a lot more successful and the masses would support it. It’s a rule of thumb, but a pretty useful one.

The basis of a moral society, a socialist society, must in large part be empathy. It must be the concept that other people, in your community or thousands of miles away, have many of the same desires you have. If you have the desire for a better life and the will to resist oppression, you must recognize that other people also have a right to these things, regardless of their government’s relationship with the US. If not, you’re essentially dismissing those people as inferior, something less than human.

A while back, I encountered a rather burnt-out individual who turned on the left due to encountering so many leftists who refused to listen to anything Syrians had to say about their country, instead dismissing them as dupes of the CIA and Islamophobic caricatures of “jihadist headchoppers.” According to this individual, Western leftists are racists who “want these problematic people to die,” people referring not just to Syrians but also Afghans, Ukrainians, Nicaraguans, and other nationalities whose right to resist is denied by the privileged Western left.

I decided that person is far too burnt out and angry to have any use in politics, but after seeing how some icons of the American left write about Afghans and now Venezuelans, it almost makes me wonder if on some subconscious level maybe these people do want all those masses whose reality contradicts their personal narrative to die. Not so much to be killed, but to simply disappear, to be erased. If all these people would simply be silenced one way or another, the Western leftist would never have to struggle with the failings of their simplistic worldview. It’s so easy to dismiss someone’s lived experience, contemporary or historical, if you can just write them off as a kulak, a bourgeoisie, a jihadist, a dupe of the CIA. Then you don’t have to feel bad about your fetish for Soviet aesthetics or your admiration for a regime in a country you’ve never visited.

I realize this is a hard pill for a lot of the Western left to swallow, but look at it this way. You’ve been doing things more or less the same way for a long time now. Where are your results? What genuine US imperialism have you genuinely prevented? Who is in power in your country and what policies are they promoting? For nearly all my life, you’ve had a parade of neoliberals and fascists. You’re at a point now where voting for neoliberals has often becoming your only way to keep literal fascists out of power. Hell, the fascists in America are some of the dumbest people on the planet and yet they’re still running circles around you. So with that track record of solid failure after failure, maybe, just maybe, it’s time to start reevaluating your movement and your ideology to see if there aren’t any flaws in there that might actually be benefiting the far-right and hampering your own success.

Or you can dismiss me as an “ultra-leftist” or “Ukrainian fascist” (because associating ethnic groups with political ideologies is fine for some countries!), and we can watch this all play out. Me, I’ve already seen this show. All those things you think can’t happen here; I see them happening. So if you don’t know what life is like under people like Yanukovych, Putin, Maduro, or perhaps worst of all, Assad, keep on doing what you’re doing, and one day you’ll get a taste of it right here.

 

Hybrid War on Christmas by Gen. Valery Gerasimov

What follows are excerpts from a lesser known article by current Chief of the Russian Armed Forces’ General Staff, General of the Army Valery Gerasimov. It was first published in 2013 under the title “Special, Non-Linear, and Hybrid War on Christmas” in the Zhurnal Voiny Protiv Rozhdestva (Journal of the War Against Christmas).

In the 21st century we have seen a tendency toward blurring the lines between the states of peaceful coexistence with Christmas and waging war against it. Wars on Christmas are no longer declared and, having begun, proceed according to an unfamiliar template. This is in stark contrast to what we traditionally understand as War on Christmas or Anti-Christmas Warfare. Whereas those traditional methods as a rule involved open, kinetic anti-Christmas warfare, changes in the 21st century have made this strategy wholly obsolete, and thus we find ourselves in need of a new doctrine, a 4th Generation War on Christmas.

In order to understand why such an evolution is necessary, we must first analyze the massive changes which have occurred in the past three decades when it comes to the Christmas battlespace. There was a time when anti-Christmas warfare was a simple matter of saying “Happy Holidays” instead of “Merry Christmas.” At this same time, the typical campaign season began the day after Thanksgiving. However trends have shifted for two very important reasons. One reason is the tendency for Thanksgiving to fall as much as eight days before the end of November, adding considerable additional time for deployment long before December even begins. Here we may also include the fact that in recent years the Christmas campaign season has actually started to overlap with the Thanksgiving holiday, so that planners can no longer take it for granted that Christmas-related conflict will begin no sooner than the day after Thanksgiving, i.e. Black Friday. But it is the second major change which merits extra scrutiny, as it forms the main impetus for a sea change in Christmas warfighting doctrine.

Lessons from the Obama Administration

America’s first Kenyan, Muslim, Marxist President, Barack Obama, can be credited for setting in motion the process which would totally upend everything we once knew about the science of Christmas warfare. As is well known, Obama took kinetic war on Christmas to its most extreme form, beginning with the outright ban on the phrase “Merry Christmas” in public sphere and from that point continuing with measures of increasing tempo and intensity, from drone and conventional fixed-wing airstrikes against nativity scenes to a targeted assassination campaign against shopping mall Santa Clauses. It is believed that the final straw was when the administration replaced the Santas with drag queens who handed out copies of The Communist Manifesto or Rules for Radicals to children. With such harsh policies on Christmas, a backlash was inevitable.

And eventually that backlash came in the form of Donald J. Trump, the president who succeeded Obama in 2017, in part due to our generous help the help of patriotic hackers which theoretically could be located on the territory of the Russian Federation. Trump’s first act as president was to sign an executive order lifting the hated ban on the phrase “Merry Christmas.” Shortly thereafter, he ended the air campaign against nativity scenes and other Christmas infrastructure such as public Christmas trees, Christmas lights, and Santa villages. Candy canes became fully legalized once more.

This reversal was welcomed by many, but in conjunction with the new conditions mentioned in the previous section, it has led to a new battlespace in which the lines are no longer clear, both in time and space. As such, this creates certain limitations, but also certain opportunities for Christmas and Counter-Christmas warfare, if only a commander has the imagination to embrace and exploit them.

Whereas in the past War on Christmas traditionally entailed engaging in open kinetic Christmas warfare from just before the start of business hours on Black Friday, now it can be waged not only before Black Friday and indeed, before Thanksgiving, without incurring backlash in the form of kinetic warfare. This is made possible by engaging in what has been called alternatively Hybrid War on Christmas, Non-Linear War on Christmas, Special War on Christmas, or most accurately- Full Spectrum Warfare on Christmas. Rather than going directly from a state of peace into a state of War on Christmas in open kinetic operations, the Hybrid War on Christmas commander may wage operations below the threshold of conventional War on Christmas within a spectrum of different Christmas battlespaces, for example political, economic, or informational. There is even the option to engage in limited kinetic warfare in conjunction with the other three battlespaces so as to create plausible deniability and thus avoid the appearance of being an aggressor. Whatever the case, the Hybrid War on Christmas practitioner always holds the initiative, is always able to determine when to escalate or deescalate, and it is this flexibility that gives a hybrid Christmas warfighting force far more maneuverability and flexibility to respond to the strategic or tactical situation as it demands.

Balancing the Forces

Unfortunately,  Russia has been slow to adopt this form of 4th Generation War on Christmas, if only because our own Christmas holiday does not coincide with the calendar in most NATO countries, most notably the United States. Besides this, it is not as emphasized as New Year’s. This has allowed the US and its NATO allies to wage hybrid Christmas Warfare against Russia, threatening our vital interests. Thus, it is necessary for our Armed Forces to keep pace with the times. This means not only creating a new branch dedicated solely to Christmas and Counter-Christmas warfare, but also ensuring that this force can counter Western hybrid methods with hybrid methods of our own. By maximizing our usage of this new doctrine and taking full advantage of the flexibility it provides, our country can offset the massive numerical and economic advantages (e.g. production of candy canes -V.V.G.) the West has over us in the Christmas sphere.

In this case, creativity and ingenuity are the keys to victory. For example, our Grandfathers Frost can dress in the traditional Western Santa Claus uniforms, allowing them to easily infiltrate shopping malls throughout the US without suspicion. When they have achieved relative superiority, they may go into action against holiday displays, gingerbread houses, and other Christmas infrastructure, i.e. initiate kinetic warfare, while officially our nation remains at peace with Christmas. Rather than acknowledge their identity as Grandfathers Frost, we can use our information warfare infrastructure to convince others that these are simply local, Western Santa Clauses who are fed up with the holiday season and demanding their own rights. In another, more extreme scenario, we might consider launching Iskander or Kalibr cruise missiles at targets in the North Pole. Due to the lack of media and information coming from the region, it would be fairly easy to attribute blame for the attack on Santa Claus’ Workshop on a third party, such as Ukraine, the United States, or a local extremist group such as the Elvish State of Greenland and the North Pole (known by the Elvish acronym Elsgan), or Reindeer Sektor.* As Russia would officially deny all involvement, observers will not be able to blame Russia with absolute certainty, and thus be unable to initiate kinetic Christmas operations without escalating first and appearing to be the aggressor.

We ignore the danger of Hybrid or Non-linear War on Christmas at our own nation’s peril. Already the West has been waging it against us, taking advantage of our unconventional calendar and our lack of a commercial society during the Soviet-era. For this reason, we must not only adopt these forms of Christmas warfare, but we must in fact develop them and revolutionize them until we have developed our own doctrine for hybrid Christmas warfare which allows us to seize the initiative from our future opponents and achieve our winter holiday goals without provoking a situation in which we are forced to fight Christmas at a disadvantage in quantity and quality. In short, this hybrid, full spectrum War on Christmas doctrine must become the Christmas warfare doctrine of the Russian Armed Forces, and in particular, the newly created Christmas Forces.

Toward this end, I close by wishing my staff and all our officers and servicemen very happy holidays.

V.V. Gerasimov

*The Elvish State of Greenland and the North Pole (Elsgan), and Reindeer Sektor are extremist organizations and illegal in the territory of the Russian Federation.

 

Greek Foreign Minister Says Ukraine Is Security Threat, Keeps Getting Invaded and Occupied by Russia

BRUSSELS- Greek Foreign Minister for Alternate Realities Nikos Xydakis said that Ukraine remains a “constant problem for European security,” due to what he calls Ukraine’s “perpetual propensity for getting in the way of Russian troops movements.” According to him, Eastern Europe would be far more stable if Ukraine could devise a way to not get invaded and occupied by Russia, which is “saddled with a major economic, political, and logistical burden” as it is forced to occupy the territory that Ukraine carelessly left in the path of Russian military units on the march.

“It’s not just Russian soldiers that keep finding their path obstructed by Ukraine,” Xydakis said.

“Ukraine has repeatedly gotten in the way of military aircraft, naval vessels, and even artillery shells fired from Russian territory for training purposes. How are Russia and Europe to cope with one country constantly sitting there like someone blocking a fire exit?”

Some experts agree with the Greek official, though they differ on the details. Italian Member of Parliament from the right-of-center “Mussolini Non Ha Fatto Nulla di Male!” Party Giampaolo Balbo says the problem is with Ukraine’s “behavior.”

“Look at that country, with its big inviting steppes and flat sprawling countryside.” Balbo said.

“It’s practically asking to be ravaged by Russian armored columns. If Ukraine doesn’t want to be invaded, maybe it shouldn’t look like it does. It’s all about self-respect.”

Meanwhile it’s difficult to to quantify just how much of an obstacle Ukraine is. Ukraine’s total area constitutes 233,062 sq mi, making it the 45th largest country in the world by area, and very difficult to maneuver around for Russian Battalion Tactical Groups, the main operational unit of the modern Russian army. This has led some experts to concur with Vladimir Putin and other Russian officials who deny responsibility for occupying the country after it blocked the path of the Russian military.

According to Russian Presidential Spokesman Dmitry Peskov, alternatives to the problem of getting around Ukraine were considered, but rejected for practical reasons.

“We tried looking for alternative ways around Ukraine, believe me,” Peskov said, admitting for the first time that Russian troops were in Ukraine but denying responsibility for their presence there.

“Our best engineers considered everything from tunnels to massive elevated bridges, but these all proved prohibitively expensive. And since Ukraine so rudely got in the way of our marching armies, we really have no choice but to leave them there until we can think up a suitable way to return them.”

Russian Coast Guard Officer Says Ukrainian Sailor ‘Was Reaching for His Waistband’

TAGANROG- The commander of the Russian coast guard vessel that was involved in the 25 November attack on three Ukrainian naval ships in international waters told reporters that he had to ram one of the Ukrainian vessels because he observed “threatening behavior” from one of its crew.

“As we approached the Ukrainian vessel, which to my mind looked suspiciously out of place at that hour, I suddenly saw one of the Ukrainian sailors on deck appeared to be reaching for his waistband,” the Russian officer said.

At that point, he said he “feared for his life” and gave the order to ram the ship, which led to the subsequent attack on all three Ukrainian vessels and their capture along with their crews.

Russian military expert Gregory Sellers explained what he believes is the reasoning behind this new narrative.

“You have to understand that the Kremlin, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Ministry of Defense, the state media channels- they all watch us and design their tactics accordingly based on what looks like it works over here.”

According to Sellers, Russian authorities may have started appropriating the language and defensive strategies of American police departments after shootings involving unarmed civilians.

“They look at American society and they see how police seem to routinely get away with murder by publicly claiming to be cowards who demand total obedience and deference at all times or else they will respond with deadly force,” Sellers said.

“If police officers in the US can get away with fatally shooting an unarmed black man talking on his phone while on his own property, they assume they could get away with using lethal force against Ukrainian ships in international waters.”

There has been some evidence that the approach may be convincing to some. Hours after the Russian coast guard officer gave his explanation of the event, some NATO officials and diplomats seemed to rethink their earlier condemnations and give the Russians the benefit of the doubt.

“If the Ukrainian sailors on the tugboat had just done what the Russians told them, none of this would have happened,” said Colonel Kurt Reinhard, a German representative to NATO.

“Let’s face it, these coast guard sailors have to make split-second life-or-death decisions on a daily basis,” said Maria Corelli, an Italian Member of the European Parliament.

“Let’s not forget the Russian boats were also damaged in the attack,” said one State Department spokesperson. “Boats damage each other all the time. Don’t all watercraft matter?”

“The media never talks about all the Ukrainian-on-Ukrainian violence,” said a Dutch diplomat.

After the Russian officer’s report was published, Russia’s Investigative Committee examined the account as well as videos of the incident, and concluded that the captain had acted appropriately and had not committed any infractions.

“All available evidence conclusively proves beyond a reasonable doubt that Captain (NAME REDACTED) acted in full compliance with all relevant regulations and only resorted to force after observing a credible threat which made him reasonably fear for his own life and that of his crew,” the final report reads.

“The Ukrainian crew failed to promptly comply with instructions and one of them made a hostile movement by lowering his hand to his waist, leading Captain (NAME REDACTED) to believe that the Ukrainian was potentially reaching for a weapon.”

The captain and his crew have already been recommended to receive state rewards for their actions that day.