A Smoking Gun?

Recently, Interpreter mag released a translation of a document published in Novaya Gazeta, which was supposedly leaked to them by a source in the Kremlin. The document was drafted prior to the flight of Yanukovych on 22 February 2014, and supposedly shows how the Kremlin planned the dismemberment of Ukraine  before that so-called “coup d’etat” took place.

It has been theorized before that Russia had a contingency plan for the annexation of the Crimea. It has even been suggested that Yanukovych may have been threatened with this to change his mind about signing the European Union association agreement. It is clear, however, that something went seriously wrong with the plans for the Donbass.

It should also be noted that the authenticity of the documents has not been established. If Novaya Gazeta gets subjected to some pretty serious raids in the next few weeks, that might be a clue as to their authenticity. It’s been argued that the document seems to be describing the actual events that played out, with only minor variations. This is a good point but it must be taken with a grain of salt. Like Biblical prophesy written after the events, it could have been written much later than it was purported to be, with the “plans” written to fit the outcome.

That being said, there are some details in this document which make it seem authentic. For example, it says that protesters were under the control of Polish and British intelligence, not the CIA or US State Department. That seems oddly specific; someone trying to frame the Kremlin would have undoubtedly used their narrative, which always implicates the US. The document also makes no reference to specific nationalist groups or neo-Nazis. It seems a fake document would include some specific instruction to “portray all Maidan forces as neo-Nazis and fascists.” The fact that this isn’t brought up suggests that it was written by a person with a specific, limited brief, who knew that questions of propaganda would be left up to others.

Another interesting aspect that appears in the commentary, is the lack of any mention for concepts like Novorossiya or concern over the safety of Russian speakers. Again, this looks like the person writing this was dealing with very practical matters within their sphere of work. I’m sure there are people in Putin’s inner circle who do personally believe in this geopolitical, revived Russian empire bullshit, but whoever wrote this was all business. A hoaxer might not have been able to resist the urge to use Russian propaganda memes in the document, as a way of “debunking” those that appeared on TV screens and the internet since the flight of Yanukovych.

The commentary after the document also mentions the cynicism of the writer. Maidan is portrayed as European “intrigue,” then the writer recommends getting involved in that “intrigue.” This fits the kind of 19th century imperial mentality that seems to dominate Russian politics.

When it comes to authenticity, one must consider what the purpose of the document is. Could it have been fabricated simply to lead one of Russia’s few remaining independent media outlets on a wild goose chase, or possibly discredit them later? Or, as it seems to put heavy blame on people like Borodai, Strelkov, Dugin and Malofeyev, could this leaked document be the first move in a campaign to pin all responsibility for Ukraine on those individuals? Strelkov already took huge responsibility on himself in an interview in Russia. He’s also had people suggest that he might make a good replacement for Putin in the future, which is a great way to get someone arrested or killed. With this in mind, it’s worth noting that none of these people were present for, or even associated with, 21 February’s anti-Maidan march. One would think these people would be lauded as heroes at such a march, yet they were curiously absent. Also absent was another Russian political figure associated with Novorossiya, Sergey Kurginyan.

Unfortunately the Byzantine nature of Russian politics forces everyone to play these guessing games. All conclusions here ought to be taken with a grain of salt, and people should keep this document in mind as events play out in the next few months.

 

 

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